Spot 3Facing an all-inAdvancedNovember 4, 2026

Nut flush draw vs a shove — call or fold?

SB 200 / BB 400On K♥ 7♥ 2♣ the Button shoves 5,600 into 2,400. You hold A♥ 9♥ — the nut flush draw with two cards to come. Call or fold?

Pick your answerSee the grade and why

The hand

A 3-max spin-and-go, 17bb stacks, 3bb each already in the pot. You are in the Big Blind with A♥ 9♥. The flop comes K♥ 7♥ 2♣. You have the nut flush draw with two cards to come, plus an ace-high overcard. The pot was 6bb when the Button moved all-in for its last 14bb. It costs you 14bb, your whole stack, to call for a pot of 20bb. Right now you have ace high and a draw, nothing made. Call or fold?

How to think about it

Answer first: the walkthrough opens as soon as you choose, with the numbers behind the right play.

Best answer: Call 14bb

The price
You call 14bb to win a pot of 34bb, so the call has to win 41% of the time to break even.
Your chances
Against the hands your opponent plays this way, your hand wins 44% of the time.
The decision
44% is more than the 41% you need, so calling is right — it earns about 1.10bb more than folding.

The full reasoning

Calling is right, but it is close. The price: 14bb to call into 34bb once you call, so you need about 41%. The assumed shoving range is KQ, KJ, KTs, K9s, AK, 77, 22, AA, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 and the smaller heart draws Q♥J♥, Q♥T♥, J♥T♥, 8♥6♥ and 6♥5♥: kings, sets, aces, smaller pairs and smaller flush draws. Computed against that range, A♥ 9♥ wins ~44% by exact count. That beats the price by about three points, so the call is profitable, worth about +1.10bb. Where does 44% come from? A flush draw with two cards to come gets there about 35% of the time. The ace adds live outs against one pair: an ace on the turn or river beats every king except AK and every underpair from QQ to 88. Against the smaller heart draws you are the favorite, holding the higher flush. Only the sets and AA are real trouble, and they are a small part of the range. Added up, the draw is just good enough. The concept: with two cards to come a flush draw is about 35%, and an ace on top adds live outs against one pair.

Practice this kind in the app: level 37, 38.

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